Forecasting Peaks of Seasonal Influenza Epidemics ΠPLOS Currents Outbreaks
نویسندگان
چکیده
We present a framework for near real-time forecast of influenza epidemics using a simulation optimization approach. The method combines an individual-based model and a simple root finding optimization method for parameter estimation and forecasting. In this study, retrospective forecasts were generated for seasonal influenza epidemics using web-based estimates of influenza activity from Google Flu Trends for 2004-2005, 2007-2008 and 2012-2013 flu seasons. In some cases, the peak could be forecasted 5-6 weeks ahead. This study adds to existing resources for influenza forecasting and the proposed method can be used in conjunction with other approaches in an ensemble framework.
منابع مشابه
A Simulation Optimization Approach to Epidemic Forecasting
Reliable forecasts of influenza can aid in the control of both seasonal and pandemic outbreaks. We introduce a simulation optimization (SIMOP) approach for forecasting the influenza epidemic curve. This study represents the final step of a project aimed at using a combination of simulation, classification, statistical and optimization techniques to forecast the epidemic curve and infer underlyi...
متن کاملProjection of seasonal influenza severity from sequence and serological data Œ PLOS Currents Influenza
Severity of seasonal influenza A epidemics is related to the antigenic novelty of the predominant viral strains circulating each year. Support for a strong correlation between epidemic severity and antigenic drift comes from infectious challenge experiments on vaccinated animals and human volunteers, field studies of vaccine efficacy, prospective studies of subjects with laboratory-confirmed pr...
متن کاملSeasonal Influenza Forecasting in Real Time Using the Incidence Decay With Exponential Adjustment Model
Background Seasonal influenza epidemics occur frequently. Rapid characterization of seasonal dynamics and forecasting of epidemic peaks and final sizes could help support real-time decision-making related to vaccination and other control measures. Real-time forecasting remains challenging. Methods We used the previously described "incidence decay with exponential adjustment" (IDEA) model, a 2...
متن کاملForecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong
Recent advances in mathematical modeling and inference methodologies have enabled development of systems capable of forecasting seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions in real-time. However, in subtropical and tropical regions, influenza epidemics can occur throughout the year, making routine forecast of influenza more challenging. Here we develop and report forecast systems that are ...
متن کاملBehavioural responses to influenza pandemics Œ PLOS Currents Influenza
The emergence of the novel A/H1N1 virus has made pandemic preparedness a crucial issue for public health worldwide. Although the epidemiological aspects of the three 20th century influenza pandemics have been widely investigated, little is known about population behaviour in a pandemic situation. Such knowledge is however critical, notably for predicting population compliance with non pharmaceu...
متن کامل